Book review: Starved for Science

Along with Prime Movers of Globalization, I bought and read Starved for Science: How Biotechnology Is Being Kept Out of Africa after Tyler Cowen recommended it (although a colleague also mentioned it earlier the same day – the two together were motive enough for me). The thesis is that the under-penetration of GMO crops in Africa is a travesty, ultimately caused by the post-colonial export of rich-country attitudes from Europe to Africa’s urban political elites, who are then reluctant to take the risk of allowing GMOs, despite the tremendous potential benefits.

Author Robert Paarlberg is aggressive, even polemical, but one can sense his deep passion and anger on the topic, and his ample supporting evidence is hard to argue with. A few of his strong points are that proving the absence of risk is impossible (and in practice a selectively enforced double standard in regulation); rich-country citizens do not object to pharmaceuticals produced through GMO pathways, perhaps because they provide tangible benefits to the majority of the population, whereas higher crop yields do not; and that the safety standards applied to GMOs in the African countries that don’t allow them (all but South Africa) wildly exceed the level of other food safety standards in those countries (something like 700,000 people are estimated to die from food poisoning in Africa every year, and millions are affected by hunger and malnutrition).

Worth a read to hear an uncompromising and well-informed exposition of the pro-GMO position; although I believe there are multiple, interdependent paths to improve smallholder farmer productivity, I found myself swayed by his arguments. I would be interested to hear a critical rebuttal from the other side, though.

Chart of the Day: Population density in Europe, Africa

From probably the best economics blog in Southern Sudan, which writes:

If you think that population density is important for political and economic outcomes (I do), this development could be pretty revolutionary.

From a resources perspective, urbanization can be a positive trend in terms of efficiency (particularly energy used for transportation), beyond the other well-documented effects on improving market linkages, etc.

There are potential downsides as well. Anyone who has visited slums in the developing world can attest that poverty and unemployment in an urban setting can be an explosive combination. The urban poor are much more vulnerable to food price spikes than rural farmers (although the latter are more vulnerable than many people realize - surprisingly many are net buyers of tradable staple crops). And it may also be that one cause of this rapid urbanization is the inability of the rural economy - again, primarily agriculture - to provide sufficient economic opportunities to a growing population.

Traces of GMO halt US-EU soy trade

It doesn't take export bans to throw a wrench in the smooth workings of the world food market:

European trade sources said US soya shipments to Spain and Germany were found to have traces of GMO maize varieties which are prohibited in the EU.

Mattias Sundholm told the Reuters news agency: "The shipments have been rejected at the EU borders, and have been consigned and recalled when already on the market within the EU, unless they have already been consumed."

The US Grain and Feed Trade Association estimates that 200,000 tonnes of US soya had been denied entry to the EU, by mid-July. Given the uncertainty, international traders have ceased all further shipments.

This has raised concerns about supplies of key feed ingredients for European livestock.

A simple mistake (or was it?) has the potential to disrupt the flow in a way that has systemic consequences, which is worth bearing in mind when thinking about the future of where food will be produced vs. consumed. It's easy to dismiss food self-sufficiency schemes in a globalized world, but the past two years have shown us how rapidly trade can break down, and that caution is warranted.

Lessons from the guinea pig

Speaking of Europe, Climate Progress has 10 lessons we can learn from the European cap-and-trade system thus far. Seems to be working fairly well, and reducing emissions despite an initial overallocation of allowances.