These are all valid ideas, but in many cases (e.g. #4) the devil is really in the implementation (or the political economy, if you prefer). I'm a fan of the more thorough treatment in Escaping the Resource Curse, although from a quick glance it looks like this paper covers much of the same ground and sources in a more concise fashion.
- Indexation of oil contracts – Contracts between oil companies and governments could easily (but usually don’t) have explicit clauses to deal with global price volatility - sharing the downside and upside risk.
- Hedging of export proceeds – Simply buy insurance against low oil prices, like the Government of Mexico has done. Easy.
- Denomination of debt in terms of oil – i.e. promise to repay a quantity of oil rather than a dollar amount. This insures the borrowing government and transfers the price-risk to the lender.
- Chile-style fiscal rules – Chile managed to save its copper boom and spend its way through the global recession by having an independent fiscal panel make assessments of the medium-term price and output gap – and tell the government how much they were allowed to spend.
- A monetary target that emphasizes product prices – If the Central Bank has greater political independence than government coffers, monetary policy could be geared towards building up higher-than-otherwise-desirable stocks of foreign currency reserves – in order to ensure the savings aren’t raided.
- Transparent commodity funds – The challenge is in the transparent part.
- Lump-sum distribution – Last but not least, my favourite. Just give people the money.
A strategy consultant tries to piece together, bit by bit, how humankind has used natural resources and how we might and should use them in the future. Some scope creep is inevitable.
7 ways to overcome the resource curse
The Roving Bandit summarizes a new survey article by Jeffrey Frankel highlighting seven ways to overcome the resource curse.
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