Volcanic ash and high-value exports

This was one of my first thoughts when I heard of the flight disruptions in Europe, and now both Tyler Cowen and Owen Barder have picked up on it - the impact on high-value agricultural exports from East Africa to Europe (especially horticulture and floriculture). Owen provides the local perspective:

This evening here in Addis Ababa I bumped into the owner of one of the big flower-exporting businesses. He was looking pensive. Unseasonal rain had damaged part of his crop, and now he is unable to get his roses into European markets. A whole container had had to be destroyed because there was nowhere for them to go. On the back of an envelope, he calculated that the blockage of rose exports is costing Ethiopia about €200k a day. This may not sound very much but it is a big chunk of the export earnings of a poor nation.

On the other hand, seems like local European producers should have been making arguments around supply chain security rather than food miles.

Scary to think that this volcano's last eruption lasted two years. If anything like that happens again, the effect on the world economy via both agricultural production and logistical disruption could be profound.


Update: FP Passport weighs in with some numerical estimates:

- In Kenya, flower growers have lost and estimated $12 million so far, or about $2 million a day. 6.5 tonnes of roses were dumped yesterday, for example. The loss is particularly devestating with Mother's Day coming up -- a big day for flower markets across the European continent.

- In Ethiopia, horticulture exports have lost an estimated $1.75 million Euros so far.