Peak phosphorus? Meh...

Two FP Passport writers have a dire take on the world's supply of phosphates:

Our dwindling supply of phosphorus, a primary component underlying the growth of global agricultural production, threatens to disrupt food security across the planet during the coming century. This is the gravest natural resource shortage you've never heard of.

Yes, phosphorus is an essential agricultural nutrient, and yes mined phosphates are critical for phosphate fertilizer, and yes 90% of proven reserves are in five countries, and yes the U.S. is an importer (despite being one of those five countries), and yes the current mines are running out of the easiest reserves to mine. And yes there is the requisite group of scientists forecasting that we won't have enough in 30-40 years. Where I struggle with this Peak Oil type of static reasoning is that it doesn't take into account the dynamic economic dimension. Prices may (probably will) rise, but this will encourage more exploration, more marginal mines to be brought back online, and even more marginal reserves in current mines being produced. I can assure you from first-hand experience that even profitable phosphate mines have ample physical reserves they don't declare for economic reasons, and that when the world price rises, a lot more of your physical reserves become commercially viable.

While I disagree with their alarmism, I do find their ultimate appeal compelling.

We need to dramatically reduce the demand for phosphate rock by eliminating our wasteful practices. This will require a combination of low-tech and high-tech solutions, including efforts to prevent soil erosion, development of more-targeted methods of fertilizer application, and the creation of new, phosphorus-efficient crops, which produce a larger yield per phosphorus unit applied. Fortunately, unlike fossil fuels, phosphorus can be used over and over -- this is what occurs in natural ecosystems, where it is recycled innumerable times from its first mobilization from the Earth's crust to its eventual deposition into lake and ocean sediments.

(And right, I forgot that higher prices will incentivize, among other things, higher efficiency in use.)