China's big iron ore discovery (announcement)

Somehow this got somewhat buried in the Western press at the time (or at least I don't remember having seen it), but apparently China hit it big in iron ore:

Asia’s biggest iron ore deposit, with reserves of more than 3 billion metric tons, was found in China’s northern province of Liaoning, according to a local government.

The Dataigou deposit, located near Benxi city, has material with iron content of between 25 percent and 62 percent, the Benxi government said in an e-mailed statement, confirming a China News Agency report.

How is the cost?

“Production costs for this mine could be high because the deposit is very deep,” said Hu Kai, an analyst at Umetal Research Institute. “It can’t compete with Australian imports, which are cheaper because they have higher grades and are above ground.”

And the quality?

Chinese underground deposits are typically between 500 meters and 600 meters deep, consultant Zou said. Mines in China have iron content of 20 percent to 40 percent, compared with over 60 percent for production by Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton at their projects in Brazil and Australia.

The cited iron content figures for the deposit suggest it’s “a high grade discovery for China,” Mark Pervan, a senior commodity strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., said in Melbourne.

If true, this would have a major impact on the world iron ore markets. The current industry structure is a semi-monopsony (with China buying something like 40-50% of world production) and a triopoly (BHP, Rio Tinto, and Vale control something like 70% of world supply), which generates possibly the most contentious and high-stakes price negotiation on the planet once a year. So a huge domestic source for China would be a game-changer - but given other recent Chinese shenanigans, I will remain skeptical of this announcement until further evidence surfaces.