Could U.S.-Brazil relations watershed survive commodity crash?

A very high percentage of "Event X was a true watershed" articles turn out to be crap, but this one on U.S.-Brazil relations (via MR) is pretty good. (Maybe because that narrative device is totally extraneous - this change has been coming for years and Obama's visit didn't actually change that much). Worth reading in full, but the punch line is:

... the major strategic interests of the US and Brazil are so closely aligned that cooperation between the two countries will be one of the building blocks of the new century... [Brazil’s] its instinct for “order and progress” (the slogan appears on its flag) dovetails very closely with what the United States wants to see in the world.

I agree except for a nagging doubt - with Brazil's economic ascendancy so dependent on commodities, how much of this unravels if resource scarcity isn't all it's cracked up to be and prices crash? After all, we've heard the same arguments before (ahem Paul Ehrlich).

Let me back up a bit to build up the logic. Brazil has historically been commodity-dependent...

In the 19th century Brazil was part of Britain’s ‘informal empire’; Britain was the dominant foreign investor in the country and Britain controlled the markets for the primary commodities (sugar, rubber, cotton, coffee) whose falling and rising prices set the tempo for Brazil’s growth. But the system seemed rigged in Britain’s favor; Brazil could never escape its role as a commodity producer — a hewer of wood and a drawer of water in the international community. Brazil did the backbreaking labor; Britain grew rich.

... but isn't it still? I don't have the stats on hand about how much soy, iron ore, etc. etc. Brazil exports, but it's a lot; it's not clear to me that the economy has fundamentally transformed, rather than simply ridden the latest commodity wave on the way up.

The premise continues that Brazil has demonstrated a successful new model...

Lula’s Brazil stuck up for Venezuela at international gatherings and danced with it at parties. But all the while, Lula’s Brazil was destroying the political logic of the Bolivareans by demonstrating that a pluralistic democracy integrated into the global market can do more for the poor than incompetent populist blowhards. Chavez talked; Lula delivered

(again, on the back of a commodity boom...)

What that means is that Brazilians, even those on the left like former president Lula, are now less inclined to think that Brazil needs to overturn the global economic system.

I have lived in Brazil and I agree with this sentiment, and that "Brazilians have an immense capacity for hard and focused work." But in a world with lower commodity prices (and, again, I don't think this is the most likely scenario, but remember it's been less than 30 months since crude oil was in the low $30s), how will the Brazilian economy hold up, and if it falters, won't that popular support as well?

This is very much a preliminary perspective and I would welcome debate and pushback on it.