Close House vote actually BETTER for Waxman-Markey?

Via MR, Stan Collender argues counterintuitively that the close vote on Friday actually INCREASES the chance that a climate bill will be enacted this year, because Dems who voted against it this time are now more free to vote for the combined House-Senate bill later this year. A very interesting and attractive point of view, and I see how it COULD be true, but I'm not yet convinced it is.