Intrade on cap-and-trade

Via MR, Intrade has the chances of "a cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010" at 50%. Note that this is not a contract on today's Waxman-Markey vote specifically, and the volume is also very thin.

Update: It passes!! 219-212 - not a very strong mandate, which doesn't bode well for the Senate. Intrade ticks up to 55.