What is Buffett betting on?

Everyone's talking about Warren Buffett's big $26 billion acquisition of Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad, which the Wizard himself characterized thus:

“It’s an all-in wager on the economic future of the United States,” he said in a written statement. “I love these bets.”

Dig a bit deeper, and there are a few other angles. Green Sheet sees it as a bet on government infrastructure spending, especially on carbon-friendly railroad. Environmental Capital notes the same, but also uncovers a fascinating tidbit:

About half of Burlington Northern Santa Fe’s cargo is coal, from the huge coal fields around Wyoming, notes Reuters. Coal accounts for one-quarter of BNSF’s revenue. And coal accounts for about half of the electricity generated in the U.S. today.

That makes Mr. Buffett’s deal basically a massive bet on coal, argues Brad Plumer at The Vine.

Economic growth is good for energy and thus for coal... unless cap-and-trade or some other carbon price comes into effect, in which case coal will take a big hit. I would be very curious what Buffett thinks the net impact of a bill like Waxman-Markey would be on his newest and biggest acquisition.