Does the oil curse exist?

The oil curse is a generally accepted truth - there are is no shortage of anecdotes from countries with oil (e.g. Brazil, Nigeria) and concern from those who might discover it (e.g. Greenland). The comparative growth trajectories of Latin America and China/India draw a striking (if not statistically rigorous) contrast between natural resource wealth and economic growth.

But at Aid Watch, Adam Martin questions whether the curse does in fact stand up to analytical scrutiny. He argues that empirical work on the oil curse confuses abundance with dependence and cites three recent papers that show that "even natural resource dependence does not undermine democratization." He later clarifies for commenters:

- I’m not claiming there are no ill effects associated with natural resources. I’m saying these studies failed to find evidence that resources systematically effect democracy, growth, or development, and most of the popular studies that do have fundamental flaws.

- It’s also not the case that these studies (or I) claim that there are NO countries that fit the Curse story, but that it’s not the systemic phenomenon other studies had argued for.

It's quite an interesting and counterintuitive finding. I am inherently skeptical of cross-country regressions, especially when they run counter to things that so many people have seen firsthand in practice. But it is good to keep an open mind, and I applaud Martin for arguing the other side of the story.

Greenland's oil, cont.

Via Felix Salmon, Greenland is "poised to achieve a geopolitical importance it hasn’t had since the invention of Risk."

Some estimates, including those of the U.S. Geological Survey, suggest Greenland’s coastal waters could hold anywhere from 16 billion to 47 billion barrels of oil, or 800,000 barrels for every man, woman, and child. That would mean a staggering leap in income for Greenlanders, who until two generations ago were mostly subsistence hunters and fishermen.

As the article notes (and I've noted before), not everyone is happy with this prospect. But it seems like both the hopers and the worriers will have to be a bit more patient:

The state oil company, Nunaoil, had one of the largest booths, with an eye-catching flame flaring out of an oil-burning lamp. I asked a company rep manning the booth where the oil was from. “Italy,” he laughed. “It’s olive oil from the grocery store. We haven’t found oil here yet.”

Greenland the next Kuwait?

Except... with >20x (!) the oil per capita. I'm struck by the (probably wise) comment of the experienced Greenlander businessman who says flat out, "I hope it doesn't happen." Besides his obvious recognition of the resource curse, it reminds me of two things: the old villager from Blood Diamond who tells Leo and Djimon something like, "God forbid they find oil here," and my second-favorite John Steinbeck book.