No oil wars in Latin America?

Via Chris Blattman, resource curse academic Michael Ross has a new paper which finds that in Latin America, unlike the rest of the world, oil wealth seldom leads to secessionist conflicts.

In the rest of the world, oil heightens the danger of both “governmental” conflicts (over control of the existing state) and secessionist conflicts (to form new states); but in Latin America, oil is only linked to governmental conflicts. This is not because Latin American petroleum has unusual properties, but because the region is uniquely “secession-proof”: there have been no separatist conflicts in Latin America for over a century. I explore two possible explanations for this anomaly: the region’s long history of sovereign statehood, which may have caused national borders to become more widely-accepted; and obstacles to the mobilization of indigenous groups along ethnic lines.

As a few of Chris' commenters point out, I think the obvious counterexample is Bolivia, where there are genuine and long-standing secessionist (and ethnic) tensions between the poorer, more indigenous highlands and the wealthier, whiter lowlands (where, incidentally, most of the natural gas is to be found). It is to be seen how these ultimately play out.

It also reminds one how sample size is an such obstacle to any sort of meaningful statistical analysis in international relations or development.

A meta-verdict on commodity speculation

A new OECD meta-study has concluded that financial investors (a.k.a. the dreaded "speculators") were not largely responsible for commodity price run-ups in 2008. The two main arguments will be familiar to regular readers.

Higher futures prices could have sent a signal to commodity producers, who then decided to hoard their stocks rather than sell them in the cash market. The shortage might then have pushed spot prices higher. The evidence, however, is that inventories were falling, not rising.

An even more telling argument is that commodities without futures markets (apples, edible beans) or futures markets where index funds did not get involved (milk, rice) also saw price rises during 2006-08. Nor was there any correlation between the size of index funds in particular commodities and the price rise for those raw materials.

The study also draws the intuitive conclusion that larger financial participation probably lowered volatility, rather than raising it.

From the Economist (subscription required).

P.S. The same issue has a number of good pieces (all subscription required) on topics like Zimbabwe's Marange diamond field (prior to latest Kimberley ruling), the success of environmental activists in influencing the palm oil supply chain, and how chimps go to war over land rather than females.

Timeline of water conflict

It has some centuries-long gaps without anything, so one thinks it could be filled out with further research, but nevertheless fascinating. Via Environmental Capital.

“Solutions” for wildlife conservation, cont.

To pirates, add military standoffs in disputed territory:

It seems the very adorable Asiatic black bears of Kashmir are one group that is pleased by all the conflict there. Authorities estimate that their population has gone from 800 in 1990 to 3,000 now. They (and other endangered species in the area, presumably) are benefiting it seems from lingering fear of violence, which stops poachers and hunters, as well as the dearth of hunting rifles after the Indian authorities confiscated them as an attempt to quell the separatist revolt that started twenty years ago.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem like this particular “solution” generalizes (not to mention the terrible human costs):

It looks like conflict itself is terrible for wildlife, and happens disproportionately in biodiversity hotspots. One study found that 80 percent of the armed conflicts between 1950-2000 took place in these areas important to maintaining plant and animal diversity. Detrimental effects on population and habitat, such as those suffered by the DRC's gorilla population are well known.

The bright side, looking at the Kashmir bear evidence and the Korean DMZ, seems to be that when conflict pauses, the animals benefit as well as the humans.