Cocoa corner appears to fail

Remember the great cocoa heist of 2010? Seems that good weather and a promising harvest in the Ivory Coast sunk the whole scheme, which is now being unwound. Hard to tell outside-in how Armajaro (the market cornerer) made out, but prices are already 30% down from this summer's peak and it's hard to imagine that they made a fortune.

The moral of the story is: it is really, really hard to make good risk-adjusted returns by taking directional bets on agricultural commodities. And if nimble hedge funds struggle to do it, we should be very cautious about the expectations we set of any pseudo-public entity (see #5) created to intervene in markets to manage volatility in agricultural commodities.

Does Fairtrade take away the upside?

An interesting tidbit in an article about the mystery (well, not any more) trader who bought all of Europe's cocoa:

Barbara Crowther, a spokesman at the Fairtrade Foundation, said that no farmers in West Africa would benefit from the higher prices. She said: "This speculation only serves to increase volatility and uncertainty. Part of the problems in rent years have been the lack of investment in improving cocoa farms. But the farmers have already been paid a set price – none of this money will filter down to them."

If this is true, it points to a serious potential flaw in Fairtrade programs - the inability of participants to capture upside profits from price spikes. For many commodities, profits are concentrated heavily in a few spikes on a through-cycle basis, so missing out on those spikes is a big blow. Maybe Fairtrade compensates farmers in some way for the volatility premium it could be harvesting, but I'm skeptical until someone shows me.