Gal Luft on crude/carbon

Gal Luft, author of Turning Oil Into Salt (which I reviewed at length in November), has a new column in Foreign Policy whose subtitle speaks for itself:

Since the world can't seem to agree on cutting carbon emissions, maybe it's time to try an easier but equally important target: oil.

Why oil, in the wake of the lack of concrete progress at Copenhagen?

This pushback by the developing world begs for a unified, yet politically feasible, agenda that can be embraced by rich and poor countries alike. One area where such an agenda can emerge is oil. Whereas reaching consensus about significant cuts in the use of fossil fuels in power generation seems to be unlikely, focusing on reducing the use of oil, which powers 95 percent of the global transportation sector, is a goal that offers a real chance of global acceptance (with the exception of certain oil-exporting countries, of course).

His proposals center on the Open Fuel Standard with which readers of his book or my review will be familiar. However, he focuses on flex-fuel vehicles and downplays the plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) which would be central to the electrification of transport. Perhaps this is because the current cost arguments for PHEVs are much weaker, and he doesn't wish to draw attention to that weakness in his overall thesis. In any case, I assert that my previous conclusion holds:

... despite [the authors'] attitude and the optimism it engenders, in the end they do not illuminate a line of sight to the day that PHEVs will be cost-competitive with normal cars. And without that, their OFS story is basically a biofuels (or other hydrocarbon-to-liquids fuels) story... and is that really that revolutionary?

Turning Oil Into Salt (6): Batteries are the crux

Anyone plugging PHEVs has to address the issue of vehicle cost, and the authors own up to the fact that the battery is currently the critical bottleneck. They cite Ford that a lithium ion battery for a PHEV costs $8,000-15,000 (~$1,000 kWh), a number which needs to come down to ~$300/kWh for PHEVs to be cost-competitive.

One very interesting fact I did not know before was that the most costly element of a lithium ion battery is not the lithium or rare earth metals that get so much press, but rather “hair thin sheets of plastic called separators.” It turns out Exxon has the world’s best separator technology, and the authors hope a prize can inspire others to match it. I wish they had broken out in one place the cost of a battery by its different components, since without that it’s tough to infer more.

All the same, the question of raw material availability looms. The authors cite the well-known predominance of Bolivia’s lithium reserves and China’s rare earth metals reserves and point out known reserves elsewhere in the world. They also cite recycling and extending battery life as mitigating strategies for the West. But while they squarely name this challenge and address it head-on, I come away unconvinced that an electric car revolution wouldn’t be trading strategic energy dependency on one commodity (oil) for dependency on a host of others.

Ultimately, the authors also have the right, open attitude toward technology and avoid the “picking winners” trap:

As the backdrop of all of the above activities, it is important to remain open-minded about other battery chemistries and realize that advanced battery technology is only at the beginning of its upward trajectory. While significant progress is made toward mass production of advanced LiIon batteries, it would be imprudent for the government to crown one battery chemistry “the winner,” particularly in light of its questionable track record of picking R&D winners. With all their potential, the race is not over.

Yet despite that attitude and the optimism it engenders, in the end they do not illuminate a line of sight to the day that PHEVs will be cost-competitive with normal cars. And without that, their OFS story is basically a biofuels (or other hydrocarbon-to-liquids fuels) story... and is that really that revolutionary?

Turning Oil Into Salt (2): Fuel choice via the Open Fuel Standard

The heart Turning Oil Into Salt’s thesis is the idea fuel choice via the Open Fuel Standard (OFS). This basically means turning car engines into flexible platforms that can use a wide variety of energy sources, incentivizing competition and reducing the strategic predominance of oil. One attraction is that it avoids the picking winners syndrome/game that seldom ends well.

One major pillar is flex-fuel vehicles, a la Brazil. I didn’t realize it cost only $100/car, for corrosion-resistant fuel line and a different fuel sensor, to make a car flex-fuel, and if this is true I think the argument for flex-fuel vehicles is strong (although of course consumers will be the ultimate arbiters). The authors’ other push is for flex-fuel vehicles to be certified for a wide range of alcohols (e.g. methanol, their favorite case study), which certainly makes sense if it is similarly inexpensive (is it?).

The other pillar is electric vehicles – unsurprisingly – but more specifically plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), to overcome the issue of limited range which plagues pure EVs. This is also not a new idea, but for me it gains new life in the context of a broader push for an Open Fuel Standard.

Flex-fuel PHEVs could get 500 mpgg (miles per gallons of gasoline, as the authors say) – note that this is not a measure of energy efficiency, but rather of lessening strategic dependence on oil. That said, it is also easy to see this resulting in higher systemic efficiency (using braking energy and charging on off-peak hours) and lower GHG emissions (if electricity generation is clean and if biofuels are environmentally friendly).

The other tiny obstacle, of course, is making flex-fuel PHEVs economical. More on this here.

Turning Oil Into Salt (1): Things I liked

First off, there were a number of things I liked about Turning Oil Into Salt. The overall thesis - the emphasis on fuel choice as the path to energy independence, and the Open Fuel Standard as the primary mechanism – was compelling, and while I will tear into some of their arguments shortly, I think the overall case holds together pretty well.

They also addressed all of the major issues. Every time I thought “Hmm, what about Issue X” (e.g. methanol feedstock, price of electric cars, sourcing lithium, etc.), they addressed it a chapter or two later. Not always to my satisfaction, but each issue was at least addressed in a whole-hearted way, so kudos for that.

Despite a fair amount of political rhetoric, they side-stepped some of the tempting memes like demonizing Big Oil:

This is probably the point where cynics would suggest that Exxon’s interest in critical components of car batteries stems from its desire to perpetuate oil’s monopoly in the transportation sector, that they will sit on the patent, drive up the battery price and keep us addicted to oil forever. The evidence for such conspiratorial thinking is flimsy. Oil companies have shown growing interest in technologies that can displace oil. [followed by several examples]

They also recognize resource interdependencies that are often overlooked in public dialogue:

For example, environmentalists who still lament the killing of the electric car and who promote the so-called “green economy” should realize that the road to electric cars, efficient light bulbs, and both wind and solar energy production passes through the mine and entails easing some of our mining laws and opening new areas for exploration and discovery. To put it plainly: one cannot go green and tout energy independence while reflexively opposing any mining activity and lobbying for the designation of millions of acres where essential minerals can be found as wilderness.

Finally, the analogy with salt is surprisingly good. Not only did I not appreciate beforehand the strategic importance of salt (as the only method of food preservation), which the authors convincingly make a case for, I particularly enjoyed how it was brought full circle at the end with the anecdote of how Napoleon (desirous of more logistical flexibility for his armies) incentivized the invention of modern food canning by offering a 12,000 franc prize in 1800. The authors suggest a similar prize for whoever can devise a thin-film plastic separator for electric batteries as good as Exxon’s, and it sounds like a great idea to me.